Trendline Digest March 25, 2022
Data Points
—— One word: plastics. The fact that microplastics are showing up in human blood can’t be a good sign. And by the way, here’s the original scene from The Graduate.
—— I’ve lived in Wisconsin since 1980 and I used to think of it as a relatively clean state, politically. That really began to change when Scott Walker was elected governor in 2010 and a gang of tea partiers joined the fray. Now, in just over a decade, Republicans have traveled many miles along the road toward turning Wisconsin into a poster child for democracy-sabotaging political corruption.
They all do it and they’ve been doing it for a long time, you say? Well, to a certain extent I agree, but just because political actors do something doesn’t make it just and good for the state of the union. We can do better than this.
When the outcome of the game is fixed, I call that game corrupt. Don’t you?
—— On a related note, one of these days I’m going to do a longer post on gerrymandering and redistricting (stop yawning, it’ll be great. I hope.) It’s one of the main ways that the democratic process in this country has been undermined, but most people don’t know much about it.
—— Now for some population news. There’s a term called “natural increase” that refers to a situation where an area (a county, for example) sees more births than deaths during any given year. But when the Census Bureau announced the latest set of population estimates, it turns out that the Covid-19 pandemic led to natural decrease (that is, more deaths than births) in nearly three-fourths of the counties in the U.S.
That doesn’t mean all those counties lost population, because some gained because people migrated into them. The map above shows population gains and losses based on natural increase/decrease plus net migration. Some of the biggest gainers and losers:
Five of the top 10 largest-gaining counties in 2021 were in Texas. Collin, Fort Bend, Williamson, Denton and Montgomery counties gained a combined 145,663 residents.
Los Angeles County, California experienced the largest population loss of any county, losing 159,621 residents in 2021.
Seventy-one percent of counties (2,218) experienced positive net international migration.
Los Angeles County, California (9,829,544) and Cook County, Illinois (5,173,146), had more than 5 million residents in 2021, making them the top two most populous counties in the nation.
—— On the jobs front, jobless claims fell to 187,000 last week, the lowest level in more than 52 years. The last time claims were this low was in September, 1969. See the chart below, which shows claims beginning in 2020.
Layoffs are likely to remain low for some time amid an acute shortage of workers. There were 11.3 million job openings at the end of January, with a record 1.8 open positions per unemployed person. This misalignment between demand for labor and supply is boosting wage growth, which is providing some cushion to households against the soaring gasoline prices, as well as feeding into high inflation.
—— And another jobs item: Washington, DC’s unemployment rate in January was the highest in the nation at 6.3 percent. However, every state in the country had an unemployment rate below 6 percent.
—— In import-related news, U.S. non-fuel import prices rose 7.2 percent from February, 2021 to February, 2022. This was the largest increase since the data series began in December, 2002.
—— Personal income jumped 7.4 percent in 2021, following a 6.6 percent increase in 2020.
—— For those of you who will be taking to the skies in the future, here's one perspective on what to expect: in short, no masks, higher prices and fewer routes to smaller airports.
—— About two out of three adults say they think the country is going in the wrong direction.
In what seems to be bad news for Democrats, the proportion of both Democrats and Independents who say the county is headed in the right direction has been declining since last summer. As of March 21, 2022, sixty percent of Democrats and twenty-six percent of Independents agreed with this statement. Last summer that percentage peaked at 79 percent among Democrats and 44 percent among Independents.
—— The global supply chain is still under extraordinary pressure. The Federal Reserve of New York developed something called, appropriately enough, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) to measure it. It “… accounts for things like transportation costs, how long it takes for goods to arrive where they’re needed, the time for companies to fulfill an order, and how much inventory companies have built up.”
The GSCPI has been relatively stable since the late 1990’s, but with the Covid-19 pandemic it exploded. See the chart below.
Despite how bad the chart looks if you’re waiting for something to arrive in the U.S., there may be a bit of good news. As the index developers noted, “More recently, the GSCPI seems to suggest that global supply chain pressures, while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward.”
—— Most voters support Ketanji Brown Jackson’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court. Republicans? Not so much. See the chart below.
—— The number of murders spiked during the past two years. Why? It may be a combination of the pandemic, changes in police practices, and more guns on the streets. I’ll have more on this in a later issue.
—— Switching gears to climate: climate change has young people around the world very worried. A survey of 10,000 people ages 16-25 in ten countries concluded:
Climate anxiety and dissatisfaction with government responses are widespread in children and young people in countries across the world and impact their daily functioning.
—— U.S. companies soon may have to disclose how their activities are affecting the climate crisis. But the Securities and Exchange Commission proposal that would make this change is likely to be challenged in court.
—— New poll numbers say that almost three-fourths of us are overwhelmed by the sheer number of crises facing the world right now.
—— U.S. households have so far saved a lot during the Covid-19 pandemic, in fact about $2.5 trillion. Much of that was due to increased federal support and a decline in consumer spending. But that $2.5 trillion is dwarfed by the increase in total wealth since 2019, which was $24 trillion. This number was largely driven by prices for stocks and real estate: the rich got much richer the past few years. See the chart below.
—— On the other hand, according to one measure, the level of economic inequality fell considerably last month. The reasons? “Lower-income workers are finding their footing in the wake of the latest pandemic wave, and rising inflation and volatility in financial markets have had a larger impact on consumer confidence among high-income households.”
—— Are you still recovering from the time change many of us just went through? A new poll says most voters support permanent daylight saving time.
One scheduling note: my wife and I are hosting friends for the next 5 or 6 days, so it may be a week or so before you hear from me again. In the meantime, feel free to leave comments on any of the stories in this issue. Also, definitely feel free to share Trendline Digest with your friends. Thanks.
That’s it for today. Until next time, take care.
Karl Pearson
